Wind Turbine Winners: SECI Auctions

As FY-18 comes to an end the market has seen 3.9GW of wind auctions with another 1GW of auction expected to come in another few days in Mar-18. The average blended rate for the auctions conducted in FY-18 is Rs 2.72 per MW with rates falling from Rs 3.45 per MW at the start of the year to Rs 2.44 per MW in the latest auction held in Feb-18. While the falling rates creates pressure for all including the wind turbine suppliers, Indian OEM’s namely Inox Wind and Suzlon appear to be winning. Continue reading “Wind Turbine Winners: SECI Auctions”

Suzlon: Q2-18 disappoints as expected

A weak set of numbers for Q2-18 were not a surprise given the pricing discovered in the auctions. However, the quantity and quality of disclosures made in the investor presentations was even more disappointing. The company managing to stay in the black in H2-18 by the magical appearance of a gain of Rs 455 crore on derecognition of asset and liability and release of foreign currency translation gain on account of overseas business subsidiary. We don’t understand what this non cash gain means. It seems as if this was a magic track up its sleeve held back for a poor quarter. All said and done, on paper Suzlon clocks in another profitable quarter. Continue reading “Suzlon: Q2-18 disappoints as expected”

Suzlon: Good Q4-17; Strong FY-17; Optimistic for FY-18

Suzlon has given two consecutive years with a positive PAT. A positive PAT for FY-16 was delivered on the back of Senvion sale and not based on operational performance. FY-17 PAT was delivered based on strong operational performance and strong market share gains. We are reasonably comfortable with our initial thesis from a year ago as Suzlon delivered a strong FY-17. (Refer Suzlon: Not for the faint hearted and impatient investor)

We continue to be optimistic as we look towards FY-18 Continue reading “Suzlon: Good Q4-17; Strong FY-17; Optimistic for FY-18”

Suzlon: A profitable Q3-17 comforts; does not support a stock price break out

SoEvery profitable quarter for Suzlon adds to our comfort in the outlook and the turnaround story at play. While  we are comforted by a profitable quarter, we also observe certain issues which indicate the outlook and turnaround story is not as rosy as Suzlon would want us to believe. Continue reading “Suzlon: A profitable Q3-17 comforts; does not support a stock price break out”

Suzlon: Not expecting a strong Q3-17

Looking at the news released by Suzlon related to order flow does not inspire significant confidence in the prospects of a strong performance for Q3-17.

The quarterly order flow is indicating that volatility in the recovery of Suzlon as Q3-17 is expected to be a weak quarter.

Quarter Units Orders (MW)
Q3-17 54 113.4
Q2-17 205 430.5
Q1-17 52 109.2
Q4-16 0 0
Total 311 653.1

List of orders in 2016


We expect the stock price to react to the weak Q3-17.



Suzlon: Q1-17 is not good

Suzlon which is trying to come back on the path on profitability delivered a setback as it started the first quarter of FY17 in the red.  A negative PAT (profit after tax) does not concern us significantly as we never expected a straight line path to recovery.(Refer: Suzlon: Not for the faint hearted and impatient investor)  What concerned us is that Suzlon management is trying to make the Q1-FY17 performance look stronger than it is. Continue reading “Suzlon: Q1-17 is not good”